[Vitalik:] There is definitely a difference between just seeing that the way the mainstream world does things,and the way that your own direct, explicit thinking leads you are different, and then just admitting that, yeah, your thinking is probably wrong...versus thinking that your thinking is probably right, but still not doing anything about it.

Rationally Speaking podcast

Fantastic, clear thinking, I'm definitely pulling the thread on the phrase “epistemic modesty”, "where smart people who think the market is being irrational look at it,and they assume, "Well, but the market is efficient, and so if I think that I can beat it, I'm probably wrong, and therefore I won't try to beat it."

It explains why some people can win at prediction markets, which has been hard for me to explain.